Measuring the relationship and trend analysis among the macro-economic variables (Revenues, per capita income, GDP, and annual budget) in the successive periods of Bangladesh
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18533/job.v7i2.259Abstract
This study aims to explore the relationship and trend among the macro variables (total revenues, tax revenues, non-tax revenues, direct tax, indirect tax, per capita income, GDP, and annual budget) of Bangladesh in the successive periods. In this study, we used secondary data from the fiscal year 1972-1973 to 2019-2020 from the National Board of Revenues and Ministry of Finance. Chi-Square Test and Durbin Watson Test have been executed in this study. The result of the study revealed that total non-tax revenues, total indirect tax, and annual budget have statistically significant associations with annual GDP, whereas, total direct tax and per capita income have no statistically significant impacts on annual GDP in Bangladesh. The time factors also have an impact on the GDP and government revenue generation. Next, we found that total revenues of the government, total non-tax revenues, total direct tax, and total indirect tax has a significant positive association but per capita income has no impact on revenues of the government. However, government revenues have a significant impact on the annual budget influenced by the time factors. The findings of the study can be used in policy making in raising government revenues in consideration of macro-variables in Bangladesh.
References
Akter, J. (2014). Bootstrapped Durbin–Watson test of autocorrelation for small samples. ABC Journal of Advanced Research, 3(2), 137-142. https://doi.org/10.18034/abcjar.v3i2.39
Amin, A., Nadeem, A. M., Parveen, S., Kamran, M. A., & Anwar, S. (2014). Factors affecting tax collection in Pakistan: An empirical investigation. Journal of Finance and Economics, 2(5), 149-152. https://www.academia.edu/download/51999168/jfe-2-5-3.pdf
Arvin, M. B., Pradhan, R. P., & Nair, M. S. (2021). Are there links between institutional quality, government expenditure, tax revenue and economic growth? Evidence from low-income and lower middle-income countries. Economic Analysis and Policy, 70, 468-489.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2021.03.011
Atkinson, A. B., & Stiglitz, J. E. (1976). The Design of Tax Structure: Direct Versus Indirect Taxation. Journal of Public Economics, 6(1-2), 55-75.
https://doi.org/10.1016/0047-2727(76)90041-4
Bank, B. (2018). Quarterly Analysis on Government’s Revenue Receipts. Research Department, (April-June). https://www.bb.org.bd/pub/quaterly/grr/apr_jun2018.pdf
Bangladesh Rio + 20: 2012. National Report on Sustainable Development.
https://policy.asiapacificenergy.org/node/237
Belullo, A., & Dužman, T. (2011). Relations among government revenues and gross domestic product (GDP) of the Republic of Croatia. Economic research-Ekonomska istraživanja, 24(4), 143-152. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2011.11517488
Brautigam, D. (2002). Building Leviathan: Revenue, State Capacity and Governance. IDS Bulletin, 33(3), 1-17. https://deborahbrautigam.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/2002-building-leviathan.pdf
Carroll, D. A. (2009). Diversifying municipal government revenue structures: Fiscal illusion or instability? Public Budgeting & Finance, 29(1), 27-48. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5850.2009.00922.x
Committee for Development Policy (CDP), UN. 2021. The 2021 triennial review of the list of LDCs.https://www.un.org/technologybank/sites/www.un.org.technologybank/files/ldcs_graduation_review_2021_for_info.pdf
Dufour, J. M., & Dagenais, M. G. (1985). Durbin-Watson tests for serial correlation in regressions with missing observations. Journal of Econometrics, 27(3), 371-381. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(85)90012-0
Franke, T. M., Ho, T., & Christie, C. A. (2012). The chi-square test: Often used and more often misinterpreted. American Journal of Evaluation, 33(3), 448-458.
https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1098214011426594
Gerber J. (2017, April 7). There's a new 'Asian Tiger. Business Insider.
https://www.businessinsider.com/bangladesh-is-the-new-asian-tiger-2017-4
Gupta, R., & Sharma, S. (2021). Analytical Study on Tax Revenue Collection in India. Emerging Issues in Law, Economic and Business, 11-15.
Hakim, T. A. (2020). Direct Versus Indirect Taxes: Impact on Economic Growth and Total Tax Revenue. International Journal of Financial Research, 11(2), 146-153. http://ijfr.sciedupress.com/
Hayes, A. (2021). Corporate Finance & Accounting: Financial statement.
Helal M and Hossain A. (2013). Four Decades of Economic Development of Bangladesh: an Assessment. Journal of the Asiatic Society of Bangladesh (Hum.), 58(2), 335-362.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321278555_
Hosen, A. (2019). GDP Growth and Indirect Taxation in Bangladesh: Related Issues, Consequences and Expectation. International Journal of Business and Economics Research, 8(5), 273-283. doi: 10.11648/j.ijber.20190805.15 Hunter, L., & Markusen, J. R. (1986). Per-capita income as a determinant of trade. https://ir.lib.uwo.ca/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1189&context=economicscsier_wp
Jain, D., Nair, K., & Jain, V. (2015). Factors affecting GDP (manufacturing, services, industry): An Indian perspective. Annual Research Journal of SCMS Pune, 3, 38-56. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2658996
Kaka, E. J. (2020). Trend Analysis of the Link between Tax Revenue, Non-Tax Revenue and Public Expenditure in Nigeria. Journal of Accounting Research, Organization and Economics, 3(3), 215-228.
https://doi.org/10.24815/jaroe.v3i3.18108
Khan, Mausikar. (2018). Impact of Current public finance on rural economy in Bangladesh. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349502298_Impact_of_Current_public_finance_on_rural_economy_in_Bangladesh
Kira, A. R. (2013). The factors affecting Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in developing countries: The case of Tanzania. European Journal of Business and Management, 5(4), 148-158.
https://www.academia.edu/download/63489770/4476-6538-1-PB.pdf
Mahmud, M.M., Purohit, K.K., Bhattacharjee, M.K. & Rahman, M.A. (2020). Taxation in Bangladesh: Theory and Practice. 18th edition, Padma Prokashani, 2-19.
Miti, S. S., Rahman, L. R., & Rahman, M. M. (2018). Local Government Revenue Rankings in Bangladesh. Jahangirnagar University Planning Review, 16, 71-86.
https://www.academia.edu/43433815/Local_Government_Revenue_Rankings_in_Bangladesh
Mohajan, H. (2013): Economic Development of Bangladesh. Journal of Business Management and Administration, 1 (4), 41-48. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/50663
Mourre, G. & Reut, A. (2017). Non-Tax Revenue in the European Union: A Source of Fiscal Risk? Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/
Musa, M. (23rd March, 2021). 50 yeras of Bangladesh: A role model in the humanitarian and development sector. The Daily Star. https://www.thedailystar.net/opinion/news/role-model-the-humanitarian-and-development-sector-2065021
Nguyen, H. H. (2019). Impact of Direct Tax and Indirect Tax on Economic Growth in Vietnam. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 6(4), 129-137. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2019.vol6.no4.129
Ogundana, O. M., Ogundana, O. M., Ogundana, O. M., Ibidunni, A. S., & Adetoyinbo, A. (2017). Impact of Direct and Indirect Tax on the Nigerian Economic Growth. Binus Business Review, 8(3), 215-220. http://irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/38369/1/1234344_Ogudana_a177.pdf
Ortiz-Ospina, E., & Roser, M. (2016). Taxation. https://ourworldindata.org/taxation#
Oz-Yalaman, G. (2019). Financial inclusion and tax revenue. Central Bank Review, 19(3), 107-113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2019.08.004
Rahman, M.T., Pervez, M.N.I., Rokibuzzaman, S.M., Islam, M.S. & Pervez, S.K. (2020). Taxation in Bangladesh, 4th Edition, Renaisance Book Depot. 13-17.
Raihan, S. 7th February, 2019. Six Macroeconomics Challenges. The Daily Star. https://www.thedailystar.net/opinion/economics/news/six-macroeconomic-challenges-1698601
Roşoiu, I. (2015). The impact of the government revenues and expenditures on the economic growth. Procedia Economics and Finance, 32, 526-533. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(15)01428-8
Sadekin, M. N., Alam, M. M., & Saha, S. (2020). Analysis of trend and sources of government budget deficit financing in Bangladesh. Journal of International Studies, 16, 129-144.
https://doi.org/10.32890/jis2020.16.8
Sharpe, D. (2015). Chi-square test is statistically significant: Now what? Practical Assessment, Research, and Evaluation, 20(1), 8. https://doi.org/10.7275/tbfa-x148
Shill, N.C., Masud, M.Z. & Alam, M.F. (2020). Bangladesh Income Tax: Theory and Practice. 14th Edition, Shams & Ams Publications. 3-18.
Tallarida, R. J., & Murray, R. B. (1987). Chi-square test. In Manual of pharmacologic calculations (pp. 140-142). Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-4974-0_43
The World Bank (WB). 2022. The World Bank in Bangladesh.
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/bangladesh/overview#1
Ugoni, A., & Walker, B. F. (1995). The Chi square test: an introduction. COMSIG review, 4(3), 61. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2050386/
UN. 2021. The Least Developed Countries Report. https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/ldc2021_en.pdf
White, K. J. (1992). The Durbin-Watson test for autocorrelation in nonlinear models. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 370-373. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2109675
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2022 Mohammad Main Uddin, Md. Jahangir Alam Siddikee, humaira begum, Md. Mamunar Rashid, Rabiul Islam
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
